World Cup Forecasting
Chronological football probability models with calibration-aware evaluation.
Research question
How well can pre-game international football outcomes be modeled when every prediction is restricted to information available before the match?
Implemented
- Elo with a Davidson draw model and a Dixon–Coles goals model.
- Strict yearly walk-forward evaluation with log loss, Brier score, and expected calibration error.
- Neutral-venue handling and optional squad-strength features.
- A Python 3.11 package with strict type checking, deterministic tests, a frozen dependency lock, and CI.
The published table in the repository records a historical evaluation run. Upstream match data changes over time, so rerunning the method does not guarantee the exact same row count or metrics without the original data snapshot.
Repository access is available on request while the research package is being prepared for public release.